← Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
Water FractalTier 1
at Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
decks
4
(10.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-10-0
overall winrate
52.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.0%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1242
· median 1228
· range 1196–1318
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1164
Q3 1338
1617
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 8.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.4% | +6.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.4% | -14.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
